Retirement Spending Calculator

Combine household expenses, predictable income, a spending strategy, and market scenarios to see what your portfolio may need to fund.

Your Inputs

Current Portfolio Value

Spending Strategy

Set a household spending target and test whether the portfolio can keep funding it.

Spending Input

Withdrawal Rate

$40,000 of Year 1 portfolio spending

Annual Household Expenses

Equivalent withdrawal rate: 4.00%

Predictable Income

Optional OAS, CPP, pension, annuity, or other income that reduces what the portfolio must fund.

No predictable income added.

Time Horizon

years

Simulation Method

Tests every actual 30-year period from 1871-2024 using Shiller S&P 500 real returns

Market Assumptions

📊 10.5% nominal return, 19.7% volatility
Based on S&P 500 total returns 1928-2024 via NYU Stern

Expected Return

Nominal (before inflation)

Volatility

Annual standard deviation

📊 Real return (after inflation): 7.8%
This is what grows your purchasing power

Expected Inflation

For spending growth each year

▶ Advanced Options

Visualize Distribution Cash Flow

Visual only. This does not change returns, balances, or success rates.

Track Share Count

Educational: see how shares vs. value work

Initial Share Price

For share tracking calculation

💡 Data Source: Historical & Bootstrap modes use S&P 500 real total returns (1871-2024) from Robert Shiller's dataset. Monte Carlo generates synthetic returns from statistical distributions.

Learn More

🧮 The SWR Toolbox (ERN) 📖 Share Count Guide 🎬 Ben Felix: The 4% Myth 📊 Shiller Data Source

Simulation Results

Ready to Simulate

Configure the cash flow, spending strategy, and market assumptions, then click "Run Simulation."