I expect Cam Schlittler to receive all 30 first-place votes in the American League and Jacob Misiorowski to receive 28 in the National League. My guess is that the other two go to Cristopher Sánchez.
Those are my calls before the November 11 announcements. The more interesting question is how the rest of the ballots fall, particularly whether Sánchez’s workload earns him meaningful dissent from a dominant Misiorowski season.
The finalists already tell us the top-three finishers in each league: Schlittler, Dylan Cease and Parker Messick in the AL; Misiorowski, Sánchez and Chris Sale in the NL. Their order and margins remain the prediction. These are my estimated votes, not reported results. BBWAA finalists and announcement schedule.
Each league has 30 voters ranking five pitchers. The scoring is 7-4-3-2-1, so there are 510 points available per league. Every column below totals 30 votes. BBWAA voting rules.
American League
Schlittler has the strongest case for unanimity. In our archived final-season inputs, he finished with a 1.95 ERA in 193⅔ innings. Cease had a 2.40 ERA in 169 innings. Their FIPs were identical at 2.56, leaving Schlittler with better actual run prevention and almost 25 additional innings. An ERA-minded voter and a voter who gives FIP substantial weight can reach the same first-place choice.
That agreement across different approaches is why I am comfortable making the unanimous call. There is a plausible dissenting ballot for Cease, but I would rather predict the clean sweep than invent a dissenter simply because unanimity feels bold.
| Pitcher | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 |
| Dylan Cease | 0 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 100 |
| Parker Messick | 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 81 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 0 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 69 |
| Sonny Gray | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| Louis Varland | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| Cade Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Reid Detmers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Gavin Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Martinez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 510 |
I have Cease finishing a clear second, followed by Messick. Rasmussen should appear frequently in the middle of ballots, while Gray gets enough recognition to hold fifth. My remaining points go to Louis Varland with 11, Cade Smith with six, Reid Detmers with four, and Gavin Williams and Nick Martinez with one each. Those final few points are the least certain part of the forecast.
National League
Misiorowski’s advantage is nearly as persuasive, although Sánchez offers a more distinct alternative than anyone opposing Schlittler.
Our final inputs give Misiorowski a 1.80 ERA and 2.17 FIP over 174⅔ innings. Sánchez supplied 207 innings, with a 2.91 ERA and 2.80 FIP. That additional 32⅓ innings gives a voter a defensible workload argument. I expect it to earn Sánchez two first-place votes, rather than enough support to make the overall result close.
Sale presents a different challenge. His 2.16 ERA and 2.29 FIP put him much closer to Misiorowski on rates, but he threw 162⅔ innings. Misiorowski therefore has the advantage in both rates and innings in that comparison. My guess is that Sale collects substantial second- and third-place support without taking a first-place vote.
| Pitcher | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 2 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 110 |
| Chris Sale | 0 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 92 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 41 |
| Jesús Luzardo | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| Mason Miller | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Cade Cavalli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Chase Burns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Zack Wheeler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 510 |
Yamamoto over Luzardo is a much softer call than Misiorowski over Sánchez. The archived ballot simulation separated their expected point totals by only about two points. My remaining NL points go to Mason Miller with 13, Eduardo Rodriguez and Cade Cavalli with four each, Chase Burns with three, and Zack Wheeler with one.
What the ballots tell us
The first two nights of award voting are a useful reminder about what these predictions mean. Sal Stewart received 20 first-place votes after our original model favored Carson Benge. Will Venable won with 15 first-place votes, edging Kevin Cash 111 points to 98. Identifying the winner and estimating the shape of the vote are separate tasks. Official Stewart voting, official Venable voting.
Those outcomes give me a reason to take public support seriously. They do not give me a reason to insert a rookie RBI effect or a manager turnaround bonus into a Cy Young model. The Cy Young coefficients behind this forecast remain fitted through 2025.
Our original final-season headline forecast gave Schlittler a 99.3% chance to win and Misiorowski a 95.6% chance. Those are probabilities of winning the award, not estimates of their first-place vote shares. A separate model of complete ballots averages approximately 29.3 first-place votes for Schlittler and 27.8 for Misiorowski. My calls of 30 and 28 stay close to that evidence; the integer tables are personal forecasts rather than mechanically rounded model output.
The result I would find surprising is Sánchez making the NL vote close. A unanimous Schlittler win, or a Misiorowski win with only a couple of dissenters, would fit the seasons they delivered.